A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
